An invoice-level four-week collections forecast should reconcile every open dollar into one of three mutually exclusive states: expected inside the four-week window, expected later, or not assigned because current evidence is insufficient. The sum of those states must equal the dated open accounts receivable control total after recorded credits and payments.

Start with one dated population

Use an A/R Aging Detail or equivalent invoice-level export for one entity and one report date. Intuit describes the detail report as the view of individual past-due transactions, while the summary groups customer balances. Preserve the individual rows, their open amounts, and the report settings before adding forecast judgments.

Define the control total as:

`open AR = week 1 + week 2 + week 3 + week 4 + later + unassigned`

Each invoice residual belongs in exactly one bucket at a time. Do not count an invoice in a weekly total and again in a downside or unassigned column. Do not leave recorded cash in expected collections. The partial-payment guide shows how to reduce the source amount to the remaining open balance.

Separate amount logic from timing logic

For each row, calculate the eligible forecast amount first. Begin with the current open balance, then reconcile posted credits, recorded payments, disputes, or other supported adjustments. Cap all forecast components at that residual.

Assign a week only after the amount is controlled. A contractual due date is a source fact, but it is not proof of when cash will arrive. A documented payment commitment, completed approval, current portal status, or recent observed pattern may support a week. When evidence is missing or stale, use `unassigned` rather than inventing precision.

The due-date versus collection-date comparison keeps those fields separate. The collections confidence labels can describe evidence strength without converting it into an unsupported probability.

Reconcile every refresh

At each weekly update:

  1. Lock the prior forecast and its control total.
  2. Import the new dated receivables detail.
  3. Match invoices by stable identifiers.
  4. Move observed receipts to actuals and remove them from expected cash.
  5. add new invoices, credits, edits, and reopened balances once.
  6. Reassign timing only when the evidence changed.
  7. Confirm the equation still balances.

Oracle's planning documentation describes multiple forecasting methods; the useful choice depends on the decision and available evidence. This control equation does not claim one universal statistical method. It prevents the invoice-level operating view from losing or duplicating receivables while management applies its chosen timing assumptions.

Decision rule

Require the weekly buckets, later amount, and unassigned amount to reconcile to current open AR. Investigate every difference before using the forecast. AR Pulse turns an authorized QuickBooks receivables export into a ranked cash-action list and four-week range while keeping the source total and management assumptions visible. View the one-page example.